Donald Trump. There has not been a more inflammatory name in American politics since the days of Governor Wallace, Nixon, or Ronald Regan. Bitter old racist, hopeless narcissist, or conservative populist visionary? The opinions about Donald Trump are about as diverse and wild as his hair. A third of America despises him, a third of America worships him, and another third is not quite sure what to think about him.

It’s this undecided portion of the population who the debates were made for.

Let’s rewind. The very first Republican Presidential Debate was hosted by FOX News, moderated by Megyn Kelly. It was an exciting time- all the canididates were within a few points of one another. Trump was a joke, not a serious contender for the nomination. His announcement speech, where he commented that some Mexican immigrants were “bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists.” much to the ire of most people in America. At this point, Jeb Bush was still the presumptive nominee. But nobody was watching that first debate for him- they were watching it for Trump, ready to hear what outrageous things he had to say.

And within the opening minutes of the debate, they got what they wanted: when prompted if there was any chance he might run as a third party, Trump said yes. The debate moderator, Megyn Kelly, went after him. Trump did not appreciate this.

Not long after, when questioned about Kelly’s probing, Trump stated that there was clearly something wrong with her, that she was so angry that she had “blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her wherever.” Many took this is a sexist reference to menstruation, though Trump would vehemently deny this claim.

It would seem all this controversy had paid off for Trump- the first Republican debate had 28 million viewers, the highest of any primary debate ever.

It had seemed for a while that Trump had left all this behind him- he hasn’t brought up Fox’s perceived unfairness, and with only a moderate amount of grumbling, he attended the FOX Business Debate.

However, with the next debate being hosted by his apparent arch nemesis, Megyn Kelly, Trump dropped a bombshell on the media with no warning: he would not attend the debate, he wouldn’t play Fox’s “game”. Rather, he would host a rally to raise money for the veterans. He would leave other candidates to duke it out under the watchful eye of Megyn Kelly.

Many in the media thought this insanity- just 4 days away from Iowa, with the Caucaus polls neck-in-neck with Cruz, and Trump was going to miss a chance for media exposure. Some said that he was throwing the election with this move- this was Cruz’s chance to shine. For the first time in the election, Cruz would replace Trump at the center stage of the debate. If he gave a great performance, he could pull it off in Iowa. Now, in most elections, Iowa isn’t actually that important- recall, last cycle, Rick Santorum won Iowa, who now polls lower then almost any other candidate.

But Trump is a candidate of very little substance. Trump hasn’t put out any comprehensive plans, doesn’t have any long-winded well-reasoned argument to support his claims. What he has going for him is that he’s a “winner”. What Trump hammers home is that he is a great businessman, that his life is full of great victories. Regardless of the veracity of this notion, by saying it so often he *makes* it true. But, if he were to *lose* right in front of everyone, is he going to be able to keep up his reputation as a winner? And if he doesn’t, will he be able to win?

This makes Iowa more important to Trump then any other candidate. If he wins it, he gets to boast about his continued victories, and his campaign continues to snowball. If he loses? He deflates.

But perhaps, to win Iowa, missing the debate was the best thing Trump could possibly have down.

For all his claims of her being a “lightweight”, Megyn Kelly hit the candidates hard. She didn’t just ask them questions and allow them to answer on their own terms- she vigorously fact checked every statement, providing video evidence of flip flopping and dishonest claims. With Cruz at center stage, Kelly went after him just as hard as she had gone after Trump when he was in the same place. Cruz was absolutely crushed, with question after question directed towards him and his record. At one point towards the end, when he accused Kelly of unfairly targeting him just as Trump had at the first debate, the audience visibly booed him. It was a disastrous debate that may well have sunk Cruz’s campaign.

Trump, on the other hand? Trump sat pretty, raising money for the troops while his primary opponent took all the heat. This wasn’t a major blunder, something to throw the election- it was a master stroke by Trump. Time and time again, in defiance of media expectations, Trump has remained un-stumped. Every decision he’s made, no matter how seemingly idiotic, has either not affected his polls at all, or made him go up.

At this point, with Trump ahead in Iowa and Cruz’s reputation plummeting, and with Donald Trump 20 points ahead in nearly every other state, it is a virtual certainty at this point that Donald Trump is going to be the nominee. 2016- the year that an ill-mannered billionaire and reality TV star came within grasp of the White House. No one thought it was possible, and yet here we are.

I eagerly await the numbers out of Iowa, but I fully expect a Clinton-Trump showdown.

Disclaimer: Articles designated as “Editorial” represent the views and opinions of the author, not the 2015-2016 Periscope staff, CHS Administration, or the CHS student body.